dillon hall

September 2025 Trends in CPG

September 2025 Trends in CPG

Executive summary

  • Collectibles are the hottest social-commerce trend right now. Live sports-card breaks and fandom IP are behaving like “micro-luxury”
  • Kraft Heinz fell after announcing a two-company split with benefits far out and costs up front. Investors want entity-level specifics before re-rating.
  • Constellation Brands cut FY26 guidance on a high-end beer slowdown, especially among Hispanic shoppers, and said shipments will lag depletions near term.

Thanks for reading this edition of the bi-weekly trends newsletter. I appreciate your time – we’ll cover 3 of the latest topics about consumer trends. Let’s jump in.

1. Trading Cards are the hottest social-commerce trend right now

Pokemon and sports card collectors are viral right now on social commerce. A bit of a personal opinion – the “unpacking” market seems eerily similar to the current virality/growth rate of online sports betting. But let’s put that aside and just look at the numbers.

Collectibles are up ~40% last month versus the month before, now a $40M category on TikTok Shop with trading cards & accessories up 39.5% to ~$33.86M. “Chips Rips” baseball cards cleared ~$3.5M last month and emerging brand acbreakz sits among the top ten brands platform-wide. It’s not about TikTok, it’s about what the pattern means about inflation.

People are more interested to buy items when they think they can be “investments,” assets they can sell in the future and make a profit. When wallets are choosy, identity-linked “micro-luxury” still converts—especially when buyers see the moment live, from a jersey patch pull to a graded reveal.

Why now? Two macro signposts say the backdrop can support it.

First, the official July spending report showed total personal consumption up strongly, with a healthy chunk in goods where recreational goods again contributed meaningfully to monthly dollar gains.

Second, the monthly retail read shows nonstore channels growing faster than the field. That combo (goods appetite + digital channels) amplifies the live-drop mechanic that collectibles mastered first.

The “break” is really a format story. Numbered runs, provenance language, tamper-evident packaging, and starter bundles that make a casual fan feel like a collector – all of that can translate into new categories like beauty kits, tech accessories, chocolate minis, and limited snack flavors.

The price psychology is crucial. Collectibles win by keeping the average ticket under familiar tripwires while offering an occasional “chase.”

But it can overheat if there is no real scarcity. If availability doesn’t match the narrative, trust goes away quickly. It’s also important for new categories to consider transferability. Sports-card urgency doesn’t automatically port to every category. You need a believable “why now” moment – a game, a creator collab, a seasonal window, or a utility.

2. Kraft Heinz – why the stock sank 8% since its split news, 6.6% just yesterday

Similar to Kellogg’s October 2023 split, Kraft Heinz said it will separate into two publicly traded companies via a tax-free spinoff targeted for the second half of 2026. One will be a global “Taste Elevation” portfolio built around sauces, spreads, and cooking enhancers. The other will be a North American grocery enterprise with cold cuts, cheese, and lunch kits. The strategy pitch is familiar, meaning simpler portfolios and supposed sharper capital allocation/faster decisions. The market reaction was also familiar – sell first, wait for evidence it works.

Three things hit sentiment.

First, timing. Benefits are promised in 2026–27 while investors must absorb two years of execution risk, from brand allocations to IT separation.

Second, costs. Management flagged up to roughly three hundred million dollars in dis-synergies, with mitigation “opportunities” rather than committed offsets. Markets price hard costs immediately and only give credit to synergies once they print in margins and cash flow.

Third, uncertainty. The CEO for the global unit is not yet named – final boards, leverage targets, and capital policies will arrive later. Even the dividend language was “maintain in aggregate,” which leaves income holders guessing about per-entity payouts and payout ratios.

None of this means the split can’t create value. A global, faster-growing taste-elevation pure-play could earn a higher multiple, while a cash-rich grocery arm might appeal to yield-seekers. But until leadership, balance sheets, and pro-forma bridges are defined, generalists will likely keep a discount on the stock and sector specialists will trade around headlines. If you cover pantry, meal kits, or condiments, the practical read is to expect brand architecture refreshes, SKU rationalization, and sharper “platform” narratives as both future companies prep for separate investor days.

3) Constellation Brands – why the reset hit shares

Constellation cut its FY26 outlook and detailed a slowdown in high-end beer buy-rates since early summer. Management will also rebalance inventories earlier than usual, which means shipments trail depletions by roughly six to seven points in Q2 before normalizing in the back half. Add tariff/cost headwinds and you have lower revenue, operating income, and EPS guidance – all at once. The stock fell on the message that premiumization has price-point limits in today’s beer market.

The broader read is not that premium is dead, it’s that value signaling matters at the last meter. Expect retailers to ask for more visible entry price points in the cold box, more occasions-based bundles for football season, and flavor-forward extensions that feel special without a price step-up.

Brands should assume displays and co-promos will be planned against depletions (rather than shipments in the near term) to prevent stock-outs or empty space. Keep an eye on whether category pressure is general or brand-specific, the next round of scanner reads and sell-through updates will separate macro fatigue from portfolio execution.

If you touch snacks or non-alcohol pairings, the near-term opening is to hitch value-dense offers to game-day missions, where a bundle solves the whole moment and trims friction. If you sit in beverages, the lesson is similar to collectibles – design initiatives for a ten-second “I get it” and make the value obvious without shouting “discount.”

Closing

That’s all for this newsletter. Thanks again for reading it through and I hope you have a great rest of your week.

Dillon

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